Match preview: Sheffield United v Stoke City
Sam Parry previews Stoke's visit to Bramall Lane
Words: Sam Parry
It’s been a while since we published match previews on The Pinch. Why start again now?
I don’t know exactly.
But I felt a twinge of something over the past week. Let’s call it a gut feeling. As recently as a month ago, our XI felt unlikeable. With Seriki and Brooks not only reconnecting the team down the right but reconnecting fans with a home-grown love-in, everything looks a little brighter.
So maybe I’ll start writing match previews more regularly. I enjoy the process of convincing myself we’re going to win every game.
TL;DR: Blades to win 2-1
Look. The table does lie.
Stoke City in 4th and Sheffield United in 19th are not finishing 15 places apart on the final day. For now, after a hellish start, there is a results gap. They have won more. We have lost more. But the eleven points between us does not reflect the performance levels of these sides on one bright and brilliant afternoon at Bramall Lane.
Across the past five games, both teams have faced four relatively poor sides and one good one in Coventry, who will win the league. Stoke went W2 L3 against Oxford (W), Coventry (L), Leicester (L), Charlton (W) and Hull (L). We put together our best run of the season per Blades by Numbers:
But I thought you were banging on about performances over results?
I am. I promise.
Some of you might not like xG. Fair enough. But per Not The Top 20’s form tables, Blades have consistently created more and better opportunities than Stoke over the last ten games.
Both sides have picked up 16 points in those ten games. The data matches results matches gut instinct matches the eye test: Blades are better than our league position suggests and Stoke are slightly poorer than a typical fourth-placed side.
None of that means a result is a given. Stoke have three of the outstanding players in the Championship.
⭐ Sorba Thomas
I watched him live for Wales before he joined Stoke and he is a real 1v1 threat off the left. Good crossing, confident on the ball, and this season he is increasingly shot-hungry. Scoring three crosses will pad those stats though…
💉 Million Manhoef
The sort of player who makes me nervous about Michael Cooper. He averages more than three shots per game and more than one on target. On his day he can produce something spectacular. Is he better than Gus Hamer? No.
🧤 Viktor Johnansson
Probably the best goalkeeper in the league. He is simply outstanding at keeping shots out of the net.
Conclusions
Their three best players simplify the equation a bit. If you can stop Thomas and Manhoef from hitting their levels, you give yourself a damn good chance. They have been involved in 18 of Stoke’s 26 goals.
The other side of that coin is Johnansson. Blades have chronically underperformed in front of goal this season, and while we found our shooting boots over the last three game — four new scorers in a week — we will have to be sharp. Tyrese Campbell feels important here. Our best finisher, facing his former club, has scored in only one of his last six starts. A big game for him.
Elsewhere, the return of Gustavo Hamer would add a huge amount. Whether he replaces Brooks in a 4-2-2-2 or a striker in a 4-2-3-1, his inclusion in any Championship team would improve that team. He needs one fewer touch than almost anyone in the league and that matters when you are duelling with Stoke’s midfield. For me, Ben Pearson and Tatsuki Seko are not of the quality to keep Hamer or O’Hare quiet. We can find some joy there.
I imagine Stoke will try to hit us on the break through Thomas and Manhoef. That actually plays into our hands. Seriki and Tanganga can shift, with the pace to nullify Thomas. I expect Mee and Burrows or McCallum to sit a little deeper to keep Manhoef in check.
For me, this isn’t a game of chance but chances: it’ll swing on finishing and goalkeeping.
Isn’t that all games?
Of course it is, but this one more than most with one keeper in form and one Michael Cooper. Both sides will get opportunities. But I fancy us to create more and start building up more effectively — I’ll dial that confidence down if Hamer’s benched.
If he starts, I think our XI has more quality, and by a decent margin. This feels like the sort of match that gives us a clearer picture of the ceiling and floor of this Sheffield United team. Proper barometer stuff. Exciting! I am convinced the floor is higher than 19th. As for the ceiling...
A 2-1 Blades win might convince me that this is a loft-conversion season.