Match preview: Odd and odder as the Blades take on West Brom
Why markets have moved, why Blades' numbers matter, and why this game could be full of goals. Sam Parry previews West Brom vs Sheffield United
Words: Sam Parry
Okay, here’s an odd start to a match preview… Politics.
Politics takes an age to recognise what’s abundantly clear to most normal humans, whether it’s the need to stop Water Companies pumping turd into rivers or recognising that the Prime Minister is cooked. You can sniff it a mile off. Not the turd, but what’s to come. And guess what? Bookies’ prices tend to reflect lived reality far more accurately than the desperation of the clingers-on.
Here are the odds. Keir Starmer to leave office in 2026? That’s 8/11, an implied probability of 58%. Sadly, there isn’t a market on the percentage of turd in rivers by the end of 2026, but if there was, I’d back “no change” into even money.
I raise this because it’s fair to say that both Championship fans and bookies no longer see Sheffield United as a team flying under the radar. Folk what know can see the bleeding obvious.
TL;DR: Blades draw 2-2
Odds
I thought it might be fun to briefly interrogate the odds, both for ourselves and for our opponents of tomorrow evening.
What follows are the best prices for Sheffield United, accurate as of 08:29 on Thursday morning, across five different markets. It’s also fair to assume these prices have shrunk significantly over recent weeks. Boy have they shrunk.
Blades outright odds:
Winner @ 200/1 | 🔮 implied probability 0.50%
Promotion @ 8/1 | 🔮 implied probability 11.11%
Top 6 Finish @ 3/1 | 🔮 implied probability 25.00%
To Finish in Top Half @ 8/15 | 🔮 implied probability 65.22%
Relegation @ 40/1 | 🔮 implied probability 2.44%
On the 24th November, Blades were 3/1 to finish top half - that’s the bookies giving us a 75% chance of finishing in the bottom half. Any guesses as to what has changed?
The economy stupid!?
Correct.
Not simply the economy of betting markets, but the economy of a Sheffield United side that have, per the xG share found in Blades by Numbers (below), absolutely dominated chance creation over a statistically significant number of games.
Over the last twelve games, there has been a total of 34.50 xG in our matches, of which the Blades have had roughly two-thirds and the opposition one-third. In most of those games, the eye-test tells the same story. But in matches like Tuesday’s draw against Norwich, it may not have felt quite so obvious given the timing of either side’s chances.
Danny Ings’ missed header, for example, was a far easier chance than Norwich’s last-minute 1-on-1. One was missed. One was saved. Both were good chances, but ours was by far the better. And that’s the thing: we’re finding it easy to carve out good chances.
That’s not quite the same for West Brom…
West Brom are odd…
Han Solo once said, “Never tell me the odds!”. Quite apart from that line being incongruent with his personality as a degenerate space gambler, I’ve always liked odds and any stats, not because of what they reveal but because of what they might be missing.
For example, on 1 October, West Brom beat Norwich 1–0 and moved to fourth in the league. I thought they looked poor that day. I thought Norwich looked poor that day. And I certainly thought “Fourth” was an overly kind statistical assessment of their quality. But you can’t disprove stats with a hunch; you need other stats for that.
Later in October, NTT20.COM began publishing xG form tables that show the share of chances each team creates and gives away. They confirmed my suspicions about West Brom. And now look at ‘em…
All this shows is that WBA, over the season so far, are worse than Sheffield United at creating and stopping chances. No surprise, then, that the bookies now see this once-nailed-on there-or-thereabouts team as more of a relegation candidate and less of a promotion candidate than us.
West Brom outright odds:
Winner @ 300/1 | 🔮 implied probability 0.33%
Promotion @ 16/1 | 🔮 implied probability 5.88%
Top 6 Finish @ 5/1 | 🔮 implied probability 16.67%
To Finish in Top Half @ 4/5 | 🔮 implied probability 55.56%
Relegation @ 28/1 | 🔮 implied probability 3.45%
But why are WBA so odd?
Appointing Ryan Mason, a young manager with only a handful of caretaker games under his belt, felt an odd appointment. Maybe that’s harsh. But this season, he’s tended to chop and change a fair bit, and while Wilder found a settled side within six games, I’m not sure you could identify a “best” West Brom XI.
The most obvious weakness is between the sticks. Ex-Owl Joe Wildsmith has started the last two games, conceding six, with the lowest save percentage in the league at 25%. Mr Mason, please start him.
Their keeper for most of the season, Josh Griffiths, has been dropped but may well return. Of the stoppers to play more than ten times, he has the second-worst goals prevented rate at -0.2 per 90. To put it another way, every five games he lets in a shot he shouldn’t. Given that we create a good amount of opportunities, I’m very confident we score at least one goal.
And given they’ve won just 2 out of 10 games, and 4 out of 15, this is the perfect time to strike. Criticism of Mason is high. Fan confidence is low. Blades have a good chance here.
So why are you predicting a high-scoring draw?
Your honour, I present Sheffield United’s latest injury crisis, the fact that West Brom have only lost once at home, and the reality that they still retain some good players, namely:
⚽ Aune Heggebø — A proper centre-forward who’s just hitting his stride with six goals in six games. If he’s up against Bindon or Tanganga, I smell a bit of trouble.
🌪️ Mikey Johnston — A winger I really like. He brings goal threat and a quality final ball. A match-up against Femi Seriki is one to watch: if Seriki goes, does Johnston follow? And vice versa.
⚖️ Alex Mowatt — Some signs that his star is waning, but the 30-year-old can still be something of a metronome in the middle. We saw how Kenny McLean’s passing hurt us in the first half against Norwich; if Soumare or Matos are in the starting XI, I’d be worried.
Conclusions
If I knew the XI that Chris Wilder will pick, or be forced to pick, I might think differently. We seem to know that Sydie Peck is out, although never rule out Wilder mind games when it comes to injuries. We seem to know that Jaïro Riedewald is back. The hole in centre mid has to be filled by someone. Likewise, if McGuinness and Mee are both sidelined, I’m not too confident in a Bindon and Tanganga pairing when facing the heft of Heggebø.
Going the other way, I fancy Hamer, Brooks, Campbell and Bamford to come back in. That’s a high-quality attacking unit that can damage West Brom. I think both teams will score. I think both teams would settle for a point.
All of which is the long-winded way of saying: Blades to draw 2–2. The odds for that, by the way, are 13/1.
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