Vinícius Souza: revived and reunited

From a derided Premier League player to a potent Championship protagonist, Tom Hawkins looks at the transformation of Vini Souza.

Tom Hawkins

Everything went wrong last season, and few players typified Sheffield United’s top-flight failure like Vinícius Souza. There was a lot of hype when he signed. There was a lot to like about his first few performances. However, as the season dragged on, he began to split opinion: Is he actually any good? Would he really get a game if his name was Vin Smith and not Vinícius de Souza Costa?

After some self-evidently poor performances, and some strange comments to the press about his exclusion from the Brazilian national team, the season ended with fans booing Souza off the pitch. But today, opinion has shifted. The consensus supports the theory that fans are seeing a much-improved player. Is that true? Let’s look at some numbers to see how Vini Souza has fared since dropping down a division.

Last Season

I was a sceptic. Watching his early performances, I held my breath every time he received the ball. The range and execution of his passing simply didn’t seem like it would ever cut it at the level. For the most part, he seemed able to complete short, backward passes whilst not under pressure. But making accurate forward passes — those that progress a team up the pitch — appeared beyond his skill set.

This won’t be news to anyone who watched us play last season; his passing never passed the eye test. But you can see below just how stark it was when comparing Souza with other players in the same position.

Put simply, he was one of the worst in the league at progressive passing (passes that move the ball closer to the opposition goal), and had a below-average passing accuracy too. His expected assist numbers (which put those with lower passing accuracy into context) were also the worst in the league for any midfielder to play a minimum of 900 minutes.

OK, so he wasn't good at passing. This didn't necessarily have to be a big deal; after all, he was brought in as a defensive midfielder for a side expected to do a lot of defending. That expectation became reality. We spent most games defending. And that fact adds important context to the below.

Without context, you could read the above as clear evidence that Souza was an exceptional defensive midfielder at top-flight level. However, if we interpret this in the context of a team that conceded a record-breaking 104 goals — a team who played within game states where the opposition had most of the ball — it isn’t quite as impressive.

Playing in a team required to defend so much, you would really expect his numbers from last season to be significantly better. In particular, his interceptions only being around the league average for midfielders is puzzling, but makes sense given how poor, at times, his positioning was in the lead-up to goals that we conceded.

If we compare Souza's tackles and interceptions to João Palhinha of Fulham (who conceded 61 goals), it’s clear that an exceptional player in this position would perform more tackles and interceptions relative to fewer goals conceded. Like goalkeepers who make a lot of saves, the poorer a team is defensively, the more likely it is that data around tackles/interceptions is distractingly noisy.

This Season

The big question I had was whether Souza got away with his performances last season simply because we were so defensively poor, thus meaning he was constantly required to do the one thing he was supposedly 'good' at. In the division below, how would Souza perform?

Many suggested he would be a bit of a 'beast' as a Championship midfielder, but I couldn't understand how people had arrived at this conclusion. In the Championship, one would assume that we would be required to do less defending and have more possession. Given what I have suggested above, this would mean that his problems on the ball would have been further exposed.

Well, I was wrong! If we inspect the plot below, the red dot is where Souza's progressive passing and passing accuracy numbers were last season, and we can see that he is currently displaying much better passing numbers this season.

In fact, in terms of his passing accuracy and ball progression, he has been one of the best in the league this season. His expected assists tally (xA) is still among the worst in the league, but we shouldn’t necessarily expect much more given his role in the side.

The main caveat to these numbers is that we have had quite a nice fixture schedule at the start of this season. The Leeds game was our first major test, and he was suspended for the Boro game, but these numbers are a pleasant surprise to me nonetheless.

Next, we turn to his defensive numbers in the Championship. I assumed that these would have reduced, and even gotten worse because we haven't been defending a constant barrage of attacks.

Again, I was very wrong. If we inspect the plot below we can see that he has improved upon both the number of tackles and interceptions made, with his most recent display being a dominant defensive performance against Stoke. In particular, the increased number of interceptions that he has been making suggests that he has significantly improved his positional discipline to help break up attacks.

In fact, these numbers suggest that one of the key contributing factors to our defence being so strong has been Souza and his ability to break up opposition attacks in our midfield.

What next?

Time will tell if Souza can keep up this level of performance. But there is no reason to think that he won’t. His defensive dominance may be tested in games versus high-quality opponents, but the quality in the Championship — especially in this renewal — is varied at best. Still, I thought he was probably our best player against Leeds who are clearly a cut above the majority of the league.

The big question for me is whether he can keep displaying his improved passing ability for the rest of the season. I thought his passing was generally okay against Leeds, especially considering the rest of the team weren't at their best in terms of retaining the ball in that game. That bodes well for a sustainable performance level throughout the rest of the campaign.

Two things are very clear. First, a revived Vini Souza is making a big impact in a reunited Blades team. He has shifted from a player who makes you nervous to a player who makes our midfield feel safe and competent. Second, the gap between the Championship and the Premier League is stark. Still, you can only beat what’s in front of you. Souza’s improvement is a real improvement, amplified by the reality that we are consistently playing poorer sides.