Opposition report: Nottingham Forest (A)
Pre-match analysis, predictions, data and danger men ahead of GW2.
Sam Parry
Last weekend’s performance wasn’t half as concerning as last weekend’s result. To blithely drift into the season opener with a starting XI incapable of causing much threat to a relatively average Crystal Palace is, I think, a shocking indictment of the behind-the-scenes recruitment. To hand over three points, albeit gift-wrapped in industrious paper and tied in a hard-working bow, is depressing. And I worry we’re heading into this game in a position just as obliging as we did the last, and Forest could capitalise.
It’s the 1v1 attacking threat that really concerns me. Dribbling matters. An ability to beat a man matters. And this Sheffield United team lack the line-breaking, chaos-causing, individual brilliance we enjoyed last season. If you look at 2022/23 and count up the number of take-ons attempted by Sheffield United players, first was Iliman Ndiaye who attempted 203, second was Sander Berge with 88 and third was James McAtee with 82 (FBref). It’s a case of wish you were here!
Of course, we’ve signed Gustavo Hamer (he says Hay-mer) from Coventry City. And I hope he can provide some 1v1 ability although it’s unrealistic to think he can shoulder this burden alone. He attempted 89 take-ons last season with 50% of those coming off — that’s not uncommon; Ndiaye, Berge and McAtee all clocked in around the 50% success mark. But, and it’s a big but, with only one player realistically able to contribute a 1v1 threat, I struggle to see how we create chances.
Even if we rely on Hamer’s big strength, shot creation, we have to assume his outrageous numbers in 2023/24 for Coventry will regress in a higher league playing for a team who will not dominate possession in most games. Yes, he created 16 goals from his live play passes, 4 goals from set-pieces, and 2 from take-ons. But he wasn’t a one-man team. And he won’t be at Sheffield United either.
This leads me to a conclusion that Paul Heckingbottom has already confronted.
“We’ve lost all the goals and assists and how we look to win the ball back at the top end of the pitch, so our identity as a team has gone.”
So, change is coming. And rather than adapting to losing Ndiaye’s front-footed pressing during the off-season, we’re testing live not in beta. How that will look against Forest, I’m not entirely sure. And I’m even less sure after seeing the previous line-up where, between Foderingham, Baldock, Ahmedodzic, Egan, Robinson, Lowe, Basham, Norwood, Traore, Osborn and Osula, our average positions on the pitch (in a 3-4-2-1) were:
incredibly narrow and congested
so deep no single player spent the majority of the game in the final third
so cautious that Basham and Ahmedodzic virtually overlap
What comes next? That’s the big question. And hopefully, the average positions once our substitutes were brought on can reveal something about our setup when attacking. Here we see Andre Brooks (35) pushing higher; this is a player not even included in our squad on the SUFC website! We see Anis Slimane (25) pushing into a position that loosely reflects the sort of role Sander Berge played last season, and we see Vinicius Souza (21) playing in front of a square-and-centre Oliver Norwood (16)—that’s a surprise.
All of this, plus Paul Heckinbottom’s comments, leads me to deduce a few things. Granted, they are deductions made from the smallest sample size and of course, they will be revised after a few games. But here they are:
We’re likely to play Norwood (or a yet-to-be-recruited player) as a deep-lying central midfielder, a creator.
Souza is likely to play ahead of that creator trying to break up play higher up the pitch and NOT as some might’ve expected, as a holding defensive midfielder.
Hamer is likely to take up the kind of position that Brooks (35) occupies here, with Slimane (when he’s fit) or Traore (whilst Slimane isn’t fit) playing in that 25 position.
I should caveat all of that by saying those are my expectation whilst the team is in possession. And given we looked decent enough defensively, and given we need to score goals to win games, that is what I’m concerned with. So my predicted line-up for tonight’s game is as follows.
Predicted Sheffield United XI:
Riley Roberts on Nottingham Forrest
In the early kick-off last Saturday (which kicked off later than expected), Forest fell to a 2-1 defeat to Arsenal at The Emirates. Obviously, this is not an awful result by any means and it could’ve been very different had Brennan Johnson not skied his early 1v1 to make it 0-1. That being said, despite it being a close scoreline, it was a deserved win for the Gunners and one which clearly showed some of Forest’s key strengths, and weaknesses.
Last season Forest’s main issue was their lack of consistency, not just in performances but in tactics and formations. They deployed 12 different formations in 2022/23—12! More recently, Forest have settled on shape. They finished last season playing a 3-4-2-1/3-4-3. And that’s what we saw during their opener vs Arsenal, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t be how they lineup for our encounter on tonight.
One difference from the Arsenal game is that the Forest goalscorer on Saturday, and their top marksman last season with 10 goals, Taiwo Awoniyi may well be fit to start, which definitely isn’t good news for us.
On a statistical front, it’s clear to see why Forest struggled last season. Amongst all Premier League sides last campaign, they ranked dead-last for:
touches in the penalty box
possession
progressive passes
passes to the final third
They’re not a side that controls games. They sit deep and attempt to hit long balls on the counter and in build-up, usually for Brennan Johnson (8 goals last season) to chase down the right channel and hope either he or former Blades loanee Morgan Gibbs-White (5 goals, 8 assists) can produce some magic. When Forest don’t win the ball from a long goal kick, they tend to get bodies around the target of the long ball quickly to ensure that they have a good chance at winning 2nds and 3rds. This makes them a big threat because it enables them to progress the ball into opposition territory quickly, with plenty forward to start an attack.
But this isn’t the only weapon in their arsenal. Moussa Niakhate’s long throw-ins were a huge asset when he played last season. He missed the opening day vs Arsenal. Ola Aina deputised on throw-in duty, and his lobs looked equally dangerous. Fortunately, due to Jack Robinson’s similar ability, this is something we can simulate to a tee in training and should be prepared for.
In terms of their defending (and hopefully our attacking) there are several ways in which they can be exploited:
One example is that they often use a narrow structure to funnel play towards the wings, they can then either go 2v1 against the widest man so the opposition has to play back into the congested centre or force an early cross which they are well-equipped to deal with. We can counteract this by using wide overloads, as we often have in the past, the wide centre back can join the WB and the wide midfielder to create numerical superiority in wide areas where we can then work the ball to the byline for a cut-back.
Another area of note is that Forest conceded the joint most long-range goals in the Premier League last season with a huge 17, this is often due to the fact their defensive line can drop very deep which leaves room for players to unleash from the edge of the box. Saka scored from this for Arsenal but it isn’t just direct goals this can lead to, a shot into a packed penalty box could take a deflection and end up dropping to an attacker or leading to a corner, of which they conceded the fourth most in the league last season (5.58 per game). It’s a good job we signed Gus Hamer, whose average shot distance was just under 25 yards last season.
Overall, we just need to be brave and play to our strengths, engage them high up the pitch, use the width, create overloads and actually try and play some football now we have players coming in/returning, instead of lumping it up to Osula and Traore for 90 mins again.
Speaking of on-field improvements: "We want to have a better balance to the team. We've recruited so training has been better since the new boys came in – the character, the quality. It would have been great to have that from the start and have them match-ready now."
On injuries after Palace: "[Baldock and Lowe are] ok. Bit of fatigue. Lowey's carrying a little ankle injury as well which we knew about, did it on a sprinkler at Derby. But it was cramp that he came off with the other day. He's fine."
On Gustavo Hamer: "He's fearless in that final 3rd. He's got a lot of assists from set plays, he's got good delivery, but he's got a lot of his goals from distance or arriving in the box. We've signed him for the things he is doing but we want to push him on getting in the box more, he wants to do that as well."
On new signing, Tom Davies: "When Tom's fit we're expecting to have a physically really good player in terms of being able to impact PL games with his physicality and energy and work rate. We know how we want to play and we believe we can use that physicality and energy to be really effective for us on the ball and off the ball. We'd love to improve his goal-scoring and arriving in the box. He's certainly got the discipline to do the defensive duties."
On recruitment for the rest of the transfer window: "I think it'll go to that final week, final days possibly. I hope it doesn't but we've prepared as a group for it to do that. I'd like it to be done and dusted in the next few days but I'm realistic enough to know that won't happen."
Sam Parry
Clearly, Paul Heckinbottom doesn’t believe that we possess a full-strength squad. That’s obvious enough to fans too. Partly caused by injuries, partly caused by a less than advantageous approach to our summer recruitment, the first XI and the squad are not at full tilt. But at least we can hope there is more quality in the XI vs Forest than there was against Palace.
Does that make me positive? I’m not sure. More positive; yes. But it’s rising from a low base. I thought we put in a decent enough defensive performance against Palace. And so with the addition of Hamer to the starting line-up, and hopefully Souza too, I’d like to think we are a little better at winning the ball and a little more dangerous in the opposition’s box. A set-piece goal from the foot of Hamer onto the head of anyone but Egan anyone?
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 0-1 SHEFFIELD UNITED
Will bite your hand off for the prediction 0-1 scoreline. UTB, enjoy the game everyone!
I suspect Hecky is telling lies about Baldock being fit. He’s absent from all the training footage. Hoping that’s a double bluff or else we are starting with Basham or Sachdev at right back.