Opposition report: Crystal Palace (H)

"Two talismans short..." - predictions, form, data and danger men ahead of the season opener.

Quotes from Steve Bettis on sufc.co.uk

Sam Parry

This is not how I’d hoped to launch this ALL NEW feature on The Pinch: our pre-match Opposition Reports — a regular dissection of form, data, and dangermen ahead of every game — with Riley Roberts behind the keyboard for the analysis.

But after the fortnight we’ve had, the sunshine feeling of promotion that covered my mood in beams of red and white has given way to something else. Something gloomier.

Ndiaye leaving was always a possibility — were we right to cash in or should we have held him to his 12 months contract? Berge leaving seemed more of a distant if not an unimaginable possibility — were we right to cash in or should we have held him to his 12 months contract? Paul Heckingbottom going into the first game with a squad more threadbare than a Ken Loach extra — I honestly didn’t see that coming.

Whichever way you carve up the stonking great turkey of the past two weeks, what’s left on the dining table, amidst the posh crockery and the family silver, is a fragile skeleton where something more wholesome should be. And that skeleton - some of it sturdy, some of it brittle - faces up to Crystal Palace on Saturday.

Crystal Palace

Last season, Roy Hodgson returned to Crystal Palace for his third spell at the club. In his 10 games in charge, he returned 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses — a more than impressive 18 points to comfortably secure survival. That was a great achievement. But from the outside looking in, I feel like Palace are the ideal opponent on opening day.

At least, that’s what I’d written a few weeks ago in preparation for this piece. My logic at the time was that, given they’d lost a genuine talisman in Wilf Zaha, we could seize some advantage from retaining our own, Iliman Ndiaye.

Given that this fixture is now two talismans short, I am much less certain. And what makes this doubly concerning is losing Sander Berge too. Because despite new faces, we cannot expect any miraculous team gelling to have occurred over a matter of days.

Still, we have to hope the impact of losing Zaha is huge. Without him, they can’t rely on that simple instruction: give Wilf the ball (the same applies to Ndiaye and to a lesser extent to Berge too).

Now I won’t pretend my knowledge of the underlying data is good enough to draw big conclusions about Palace (I’ll leave that to Riley, below), but I do think there is some cause for optimism. I think we’ll have a good bash as a defensive unit this season against all but the highest-quality opposition. And if we can keep the ball out of the net, then there’s a fair chance the we can nab a point or better. That’s the plan for the season, surely?

Riley Roberts

In most of their pre-season games, and in all their most recent ones, Palace have played the same 4-2-3-1. That’s the formation Roy Hodgson wanted to play at the end of last season, and it has now been aided by the arrival of Jefferson Lerma who will create a formidable double-pivot with Cheick Doucoure.

The main hallmark of this system is its defensive solidarity. Out of possession, Crystal Palace drop into their 4-4-1-1, creating 2 rigid blocks of 4 which is a notoriously hard shape to break down. Only Manchester City, Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool conceded less xG than Palace last season (49.15). And this has continued into pre-season against strong opposition in Sevilla (1-1) and then a win over Lyon (2-0), who are an exceptionally gifted attacking side featuring creative talents such as Rayan Cherki and Bradley Barcola. Palace’s defensive structure enables them to shut teams out - quality teams too. Ominous signs!

In terms of attacking intent, the threat of Palace’s tricky attackers is pretty huge: no Premier League team completed more dribbles last season, and only five clubs in the Top Five Leagues in the World completed more. And although they have lost key man Zaha, and even though Olise might not be fit for opening day, they still possess the likes of Edouard, Eze and Ayew who all provide a big threat when running at a defence.

Okay, time for some light relief. Crystal Palace obviously aren’t perfect or else they would have finished higher than 11th last season. There are some areas ripe for exploitation. Hodgson was appointed in March, but between then and the end of the season, Palace conceded 8 goals from set pieces and penalties. In fact, every goal they conceded under Roy (bar two), came from set-pieces or crosses. And this theme has continued into pre-season against Sevilla and Brondby in pre-season.

Fortunately, we are just about as poised to exploit this as any side. Norwood and Slimane both have the ability to put an enticing ball into the box. Whilst Anel (6 goals last season), Egan (2) and whoever gets the nod between Robinson (3) and Trusty (4) all have the ability to turn set pieces into goals. And that’s not only headed goals. We’ve all seen Anel’s volleys, but you may not have Trusty’s audacious back-heel scored for Birmingham last season. And all of that is on top of McBurnie’s record: scoring 5 goals from set-pieces and 6 headed goals overall.

Another potential Palace weakness, which was highlighted in their 0-0 draw against Everton last season, is that they can struggle to break down sides who sit deep and keep the spaces in behind to a minimum. Adopting this shape almost completely nullifies Palace’s threat from balls over the top and can lead to quick counters out wide if Palace over-commits.

Ultimately, even though this is the type of game where we would like to attack from the off and control the game, we might be best making it a scrappy affair, frustrating their key men and hitting them with quick counters out wide. I hate to say it but a lot of the players that could make a difference for us here are injured. Bogle (counter-attacking threat out wide) and McBurnie (aerially) are two who I feel could have had good days, but it looks like they won’t be fit—an attacker with pace on either side of McBurnie would’ve been a perfect approach. However, with our awful injuries up top, I can’t see it being anything other than a flat 5-3-2.

Predicted Sheffield United XI:

Foderingham, Lowe, Robinson, Egan, Ahmedodzic, Baldock, Osborn/Souza, Norwood, Slimane, Osula, Traore.

Predicted Crystal Palace XI:

Sam Johnstone, Joel Ward, Joachim Anderson, Marc Guehi, Nathaniel Clyne, Jefferson Lerma, Cheick Doucore, Jordan Ayew, Jeffrey Schlupp, Eberechi Eze, Odosonne Edouard.

Paul Heckingbottom:

On Sander Berge and rumours of an ultimatum: “No one would be treated any differently while I'm here – we'd have 15 bodies sat in the stand if that was the case. I wouldn't allow that to happen. If other conversations have gone on, you need to ask them, but the players know I wouldn't do that.

“Sander was happy to stay. He would have stayed, given everything and maybe stayed behind or explored his options, as you're entitled to do. I'm disappointed, and Sander is in a way, but then he's moved after the club accepted a bid.”

On Vinícius Souza: “Sander going near the end is a blow. Vini was coming in to play with Sander and the rest of the boys, so now we’re starting again. The timing of it is the problem – with two days to go, we are light.

“I’ve been speaking to [Souza] more than my wife to try and get him here! Everyone wanted to make it happen. Some are more complicated than others, but he was determined to come here.”

On new signings and the season ahead: “We need more players, and it's my job to push to get players in. We are nowhere near where we need to be. There has been quite a bit of negativity when walking about speaking to people: what we do now will define the season. Forget the politics of “he said this and that”, it's about the signings we make and how strong we can be for a tough season.

“I want everyone to focus on Palace. That's got to be our focus: forget what's gone, it's about attacking this season. I know the area and this club well enough – in times like this we can surprise a lot of people… it's exciting me and the players and from here we should only be getting stronger. But only if we do the right things.”

On Tommy Doyle: “He's not our player but someone I speak to – there’s always a chance.”

On money for reinforcements: “Prince Abdullah has assured me the money is there for me to spend, so we need to go and spend it. I don't want to give too much away or give names, but we've got a lot of young boys in our group: from November 2021, when we took over, we've lost 18 players from that squad and brought 6 in, so we're 12 light.

“We're desperately light. We've done some good recruitment, but I'm now pushing for that bit more experience that will give us a big lift in these next three weeks.”

On Crystal Palace: “Its a tough one. We’ve seen a lot of them: well drilled when they haven't got the ball in the areas they want to protect, and always a threat in the final third. We know they have dangerous players at the top end of the pitch.”

Roy Hodgson:

Coming later 11 August

Sam Parry

It’s a home game against a team that will, in all likelihood, be in the bottom half of the table come May. I know it’s a game that comes too early for a lot of our players. And whilst I don’t feel overly confident in the season as a whole, I’m all for relentless positivity on the pitch. So let’s say we nab a set-piece goal and defend incredibly well.

SHEFFIELD UNITED 1-0 CRYSTAL PALACE

(John Egan, 61)