Opposition report: Brentford (H)

Can fearless Blades mollify THE model club and smoke the bees?

Sam Parry

Did you know that the half-life of caffeine is as high as 9.5 hours? That means if you drink a cup of coffee after lunchtime, you risk a poor night’s sleep.

Did you know that never flossing your teeth could raise your mortality risk by up to 30%? If you avoid that sharp string of plastic, it means you’re more likely to die sooner than those who use it every day.

Did you know that the best price for Sheffield United To Be Relegated From the Premier League is 1/15? That means Murdoch, Coates and Paddy think the Blades, as an implied probability, have a 93% likelihood of going down.

Look, I’m writing this at 14:20 on Thursday coffee in hand. I don’t fear a bad night’s sleep. I freely admit, I haven’t flossed my teeth today, although I do try and remember to do it in the evenings. But I don’t fear death from non-flossing. And, like the Blades performance on Wednesday against Liverpool, I have pushed relegation from my bucket of worries.

It wasn’t compelling. It wasn’t outstanding. It hasn’t even changed my assumption that the Blades will be relegated — but Wednesday night was the no-fear performance this club needed. As Han Solo told an irritating C-3PO: “Never tell me the odds”.

Does the 0-2 defeat tell us anything about tomorrow’s tie with Brentford? It’s hard to tell. The most encouraging piece of data I’ll point to is our expected goals against (xGA).

Our average xGA over fifteen games of this top-flight season is 1.99, effectively two goals per game — we’ve conceded 41. Against Liverpool — amongst the most elite teams we’re likely to face this season — our xGA was 1.7 (per FBref) and that’s the 5th lowest in any of our games so far. No great shake still.

If we can learn one lesson from the tiny sample size of a single game, it is that Sheffield United setting up under Chris Wilder may be a tougher nut to crack. We may be harder to play through. We may concede fewer chances and fewer goals.

Personally, I don’t think it’s sensible to over-analyse one game. You can’t spot a trend from one data point. To get carried away, I’ll need to see a consistent improvement in performance. Instead, for now, I just want to enjoy that dangling thread of hope because my rational brain is urging caution. My rational brain is saying something else.

Rational brain: if Sheffield United can be said to have an average (as in the mean) ‘best performance’ — let’s call it the “Everton Level” — then over the rest of the season, through the ups and downs, the most likely scenario is that we regress to the mean, to the average, to the Everton Level. And that level isn’t good enough.

Shush!

Let’s see where getting carried away takes us instead.

Carried away brain: if Sheffield United can maintain the defensive levels shown against Liverpool and apply it to lesser teams, then it’s entirely possible we can secure a few more points by keeping the ball out.

Any arguments being made that the Blades could start securing a few more points, in my view, rely on us getting something from tomorrow’s game. To maintain a no-fear approach in the medium-term, we need the maths to start reading slightly more favourably. We need to build some confidence. So what threat do our opponents Brentford pose?

Data-adopting Brentford are always touted as a “model club”. No doubt there are persuasive arguments to support that. But let’s have it right, oodles of dosh has helped.

In a flourish of statistical serendipity, their xG data over 15 games is more tightly aligned to their actual goals tally than any other club in the top-flight. They have an xG of 1.45 per game, whilst the real goals column shows 1.53 per game. They have an xGA of 1.49 per game, whilst the real goals against column shows 1.4. That means the differential between their expected goal difference versus their real goal difference is a fractional +0.08.

Hang on… I’ve told a lie.

There is another club whose xG data is an even more accurate reflection of their real-world goal difference — Sheffield United Football Club, you might’ve heard of them. Our differential is xG 0.77 (vs real 0.73) - xGA 1.99 (vs 2.73) = -0.04.

Who’s the model club now?!

Anyhow, Brentford pose plenty of threat. Take your pick:

• Bryan Mbuemo averages a goal every other game and a shot on target in every game, plus he has three assists to his name already (might be injured - big boost)

• Mathias Jensen has a clutch of goals and assists and drives so much of what is good about Brentford — covers a huge amount of ground, makes big chances, wins ground duels, keeps possession of the football

Jensen Heatmap, from SofaScore

• Ethan Pinnock at centre back is at the heart of build up, making more passes than any other Brentford player, a threat from set-pieces and a winner of aerial duels — 75% won (and he perhaps provides some food for thought for Chris Wilder because we need a certain Bosnian CB to step up and become the top player he’s capable of being)

• Brentford also have Neal Maupay, who is rubbish. So hopefully he starts.

But in all seriousness, I feel like a Brentford on-song are on of the worst teams we could face right now. They are methodical but adaptable, moving the ball quickly in sharp patterns all over the pitch. They can stretch us. They can break quickly or play through the lines. They have players who can score the spectacular. They are, all things considered, pretty bloody good.

But Liverpool they are not. And so if United can keep the ball out, or reduce arrears to a single goal, then there’s every chance of getting a result. Brentford have conceded 9 in 7 away from home — there’s something to latch onto. Yes, they might have beaten Chelsea and Fulham on the road, but they are the solitary wins away from the Gtech Community Stadium.

So, what am I saying? I think I’m saying there’s a similar probability of beating these as there was of beating Wolves or Bournemouth.

How do I think it will play out?…

Absolutely no idea.

But team-wise, I expect the same XI. Oli McBurnie will surely return when his two-match suspension ends, but he’ll be sitting this one out. The only other conceivable change to my mind is bringing in Oliver Norwood for Andre Brooks, but Norwood is suspended as well. Of course, it’s not inconceivable that Wilder deployed a Liverpool-specific formation for the previous game, and all of this could be rubbish. Anyhow, I suspect it’s a case of “we go again”.

Scoreline wise, I’m always an optimist. That doesn’t change now, so let’s say: Sheffield United 2-1 Brentford (Robinson winner from a Hamer free-kick).