Match preview: Sheffield United v Norwich

Sam Parry looks ahead to Norwich’s trip to Bramall Lane, draws out the shared challenges facing Wilder and Clement, and permits himself to bask in the 4–0 dismantling of Stoke.

Words: Sam Parry

The thick and fast of the football calendar leaves us little time to dwell on performances. But, after Saturday (and given we’re not recording a podcast until Wednesday), I thought I’d take a moment to linger on it.

In a chaotic season, it’s funny how the turbulence (play-off loss, sacking, hiring, losing, sacking, hiring, losing, hating the lot of the chuffing losers… and finally winning again, losing again, and winning again) somehow made the 4–0 win against Stoke feel that bit sweeter.

TL;DR: Blades to win 3-1

Cracking it against the Potters

When Wilder returned, I wrote about the need to tolerate future failure — not as a criticism, but as an acknowledgement of where the squad was. There was no new manager bounce, no instant transformation. We stumbled through poor performances, individual errors, tactical experiments (Tanganga’s hybrid RB role comes to mind), and the inevitable pain of a team trying to reinvent itself.

But one of Wilder’s great strengths is that he tolerates a degree of failure. Or, to put it another way, and without wanting to get too High Performance Podcast about it, Wilder is a solutions-oriented manager.

We saw every bit of that against Stoke, from set-piece improvements and the Brooks-Seriki relationship to the small tweaks with Ben Mee out injured and finding the right balance at the back to nullify The Sorba Manhoef Complex. Mark McGuinness had an extraordinary first-half cameo across a slew of rinse-and-repeat corners, and Tyler Bindon, seemingly cast away without a Wilson, returned to put a good shift in during the second half.

Even those who weren’t outstanding on the day found quality when it mattered — Sydie Peck’s swirling dink to Seriki; Tyrese Campbell’s back-heel for Brooks’ penalty-award. That’s what happens when your tails are up and confidence is returned.

Wilder is a learner and a fixer. We already knew that. Which raises one interesting wrinkle ahead of tomorrow’s game: his opposite number, Philippe Clement, has been dealt a somewhat similar hand at Norwich.

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Shared inheritance: Chris Wilder vs Philippe Clement

Like Wilder, Philippe Clement has walked into a team whose issues run far deeper than confidence. Like Wilder, a “new manager bounce” was never likely.

Why? Because new manager bounces are almost always the preserve of those who join a team performing well without getting results. Think Tonda Eckert at Southampton. Think Frank Lampard after Mark Robins at Coventry. Go back further: Michael Carrick after Wilder at Boro.

Clement, like Wilder then, has limited room to manoeuvre. The injury list is extensive. Most of his XI is unchanged; the only real shift is McConville replacing Medić at centre-half. The schedule is relentless, the squad is stretched, and meaningful change is hard when the tools aren’t suited to the job. If solutions were obvious, the last guy would’ve found them.

Just as our early failures came from individual mistakes, Norwich’s are too. They lead the league for errors made. And really, there may not be a more fragile defence in the division… so why am I a little nervous?

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Nervous about Norwich

After going 2–0 up against Watford on Saturday, the Canaries collapsed to a 2–3 defeat. On the one hand, yes, that’s poor. On the other, 23rd-placed Norwich were the better side for long spells in a game against a team 10 places higher.

🚨 Are we hitting “The League Table Lies” klaxon again?

Yes.

…Well, sort of.

When you’re struggling, everything seems to go against you. But things can turn. We’ve seen both sides of that coin, and Clement’s lot will be desperate to correct their most recent failure. The question is, do they have the XI to do it?

They retain one of the division’s best strikers in Josh Sargent. He scored his first goal since August last time out and is always a danger. In Pelle Mattsson they have a real defensive midfield presence — the sort I wish we had our AI trained on. He’ll offer more resistance than Stoke’s midfield managed against two of Hamer / O’Hare / Brooks.

Elsewhere, their attacking options are neat without being frightening. With the exception of Emiliano Marcondes (30), the options skew young — Makama, Schwartau, Amankwah are all 22-or-under. I like them, but don’t fear them.

Pre-match, I thought Stoke were less threatening than their league position suggested. And whilst I think Norwich are probably more threatening than their basement-dwelling suggests, I don’t believe Clement can possibly find the level of solutions that Wilder has found over the medium term. That said, Norwich look better under the new man, one match isn’t the medium term, and we haven’t entirely banished our mistake-laden demons.

So a sterner test than we might think, but surely the bookies are right to give us 60% chance of winning?

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The Case Against

No arguments. The table is lying more about us than Norwich. Their performance data genuinely matches their results.

• 3rd-worst xGA in the league; 3rd-worst goals conceded

• Last six games: 3.11 expected goals per match; 3.5 goals per match

• In that time, their share of xG: <45%; their share of goals: 42%

They give you chances. Lots of them.

The equation: Injuries + poor defenders = brutal cocktail

Now, I was looking forward to seeing Harry Darling — he’s won a paltry 55% of his aerial duels [note: Mee & McGuinness ~70%, Tanganga ~60%]. But the former “Wilder List” target is suspended. That leaves either Shane Duffy — deemed “too much of a risk” for the bench v Watford — or… well, not much else.

I quite like Duffy. But I fancy Tom Cannon to start. And if he does, I think we’re starting to get a bit more out of his runs in behind, and that could cause problems for Norwich’s patched-up defence.

And out wide?

Norwich allow 21 crosses per game on average — high by league standards. Given the schedule, I reckon Harrison Burrows comes in to add crossing threat. On the other side, you have that foil in Seriki’s direct running. Tony Springett, who made his first Canaries start in two years at left-back, will not relish that match-up.

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Conclusions

On balance, Norwich’s weaknesses outweigh their threats. But I’m wary of the growing idea that “there are no good sides in the Championship”. My take is the opposite: there are no great sides, but there are no terrible ones either. The baseline has risen. There are no gimmes. Norwich aren’t mugs.

If I had to guess the XI, I’d go: Cooper, Burrows, Mee, Tanganga, Seriki, Riedewald, Peck, Hamer, Brooks, Cannon, Bamford.

If that’s close to the real thing, I don’t see Norwich’s defence keeping us from scoring at least a couple. And with their options, I don’t see greater individual threats than Leicester had a couple of games ago — and that was at home for them.

All of which is the long-winded way of saying: Blades to win 3–1.