Finding our level

A win is what happens when variance comes home to roost.

Sam Parry

One win does not a season make. Don’t get me wrong, I loved that second half: the battling, the pressing, the energy, the willingness to smack a ball from range and test the keeper. It wasn’t sparkling, but it was so much better than the dreary non-spectacle of a first half that passed us by. But why did we win?

It’s tempting to point to the luck of a late penalty, a tactical tweak when McAtee was introduced, or even a rousing half-time intervention. I’m sure they made a tangible difference (of course the penalty did!!).

But realistically, the likelihood of a winning outcome for this Sheffield United side increases when we play a team such as Wolves or Everton at home — that’s variance. When the quality of opposition reduces, our chance of taking points increases. The logic is as cold as it is inarguable.

It was those reasons — and not any dewy-eyed belief in his tactical nous — that I’ve been a persistent supporter of Paul Heckingbottom. And I’m glad he’s been given the time to let variance come home to roost. Because there’s a tendency to believe that Sheffield United have been performing way below their expected level. I just don’t buy it. Our level is that of the relegation scrapper.

Given the injuries, the new players to integrate, and the reduction in quality of the starting XI who came second in the Championship, I would argue that we’re performing exactly as expected. The big issue has been an inability to pick up points from low-margin games.

Before Saturday, our home matches and their results were as follows: