Evolution, Revolution: our midfield future

With James McAtee signing for the Blades, Riley Roberts scans the horizon for the dawning of our new midfield future.

Riley Roberts

With the international break upon us, conversations about the Blades tend to turn away from the match just gone and toward something more introspective. One of the topics up for debate on Twitter (X these days) is the current state and future of our midfield. Who should Paul Heckingbottom pick? Who should be on the bench? And perhaps, most polarising of all, should Norwood be starting? He’s been the centre of the debate for a week at least. And he’s been central to our play for much, much longer.

The Background

In our promotion season in 2022/23, Oliver Norwood featured in all 46 Championship games, totalling 3,530 minutes of action, or the equivalent of 39.2 full 90 minutes. Obviously, this is a hell of a lot of game time. And despite a long history of pings, his availability over a rigorous Championship season at the age of 32 went somewhat under the radar. Those 3,530 minutes put him sixth for Championship minutes played by outfielders over 31 last season, and he was one of just two who featured in every single match for their side.

Where did he actually play? For most of last season, our formation was a 3–4–2–1 or 3–4–3 shape with two central midfield ‘pivot’ players behind two more attacking midfielders. But we also deployed our more traditional 3–5–2 on a fair few occasions. In the 3–4–2–1, Norwood was a part of the two-man pivot, usually alongside either Tommy Doyle or Sander Berge, neither of whom are at the club this season.

Alternatively when we played a 3–5–2, Norwood would be the deepest of the midfield three, anchoring the midfield and dropping deep to progress the ball up the pitch. In this role, he would often play with both Doyle and Berge and even sometimes with James McAtee. (Now that McAtee has re-signed on loan, I don’t expect him to be playing in those deeper positions; he’s been signed to play in an attacking midfield position.) Towards the end of the season, Norwood’s gametime was somewhat diminished due to the partnership of Doyle and Berge as a two-man midfield – Doyle took over a lot of Norwood’s duties and added his own elements to the role.

Line-up vs Blackburn in August 2022, 3–5–2 with Norwood:

Line-up vs Blackburn in March 2023, 3–4–2–1 without Norwood:

When compared to other Championship midfielders who played a significant share of minutes last season, Norwood’s statistics come out looking extremely impressive.

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Pizza Charts Explained

- The following ‘pizza chart’ explores several metrics for one player, Norwood

- Each metric - e.g. ‘Progressive Passes - is cast within a percentile

- A percentile reflects a group of players ranked 0-100

- The group in this case is Championship defensive midfielders and central midfielders 22/23 who played a qualifying number of minutes (you wouldn’t want to compare Norwood’s stats to a winger, nor a player who only played once)

- If Norwood ranks highest amongst the group for Progressive Passes, which he does, he is ranked 99; if he were lowest, he’d rank 1.

- In essence, these charts show a comparative snapshot of how a player stacks up against their peers.

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As you can see from the graph, Norwood ranks extremely high in quite a few stats, he was in at least the top 4% of all DMs/CMs for:

1. Progressive Passes

2. Passes into the Final Third

3. Expected Assists (xA)

4. Duel Success % (Offensive and Defensive)

5. Interceptions

6. Total Defensive Actions

This helps us to understand both what Norwood is good at, and why his role in the team was significant. Last year, he was comfortably in the top two midfield progressors in the league, alongside Swansea’s Matt Grimes. Norwood was and is a superb ball-winner. His intelligence and reading of the game is top-notch and this makes him great at recovering loose balls and making interceptions by cutting passing lanes and winning 50/50s.

It’s also worth noting that out of all DMs/CMs who played a qualifying number of minutes, Norwood ranked second lowest for dribbles per 90 (0.28). This further highlights his role as one that doesn’t rely upon great mobility on the ball; or at least, that he is at his best when paired with a more mobile player, and someone with good ball-carrying qualities (see Sander Berge).

Norwood’s heatmap for 2022–23

As his heatmap shows, Norwood spends a great majority of his time at the centre of the pitch, acting as the heartbeat of the team. When our attacks fizzle out, we often work the ball back to Norwood, who is rarely positioned ahead of the ball, to start again. The only real time Norwood deviates from the centre of the pitch is when we have a team pinned deep in their own half: his preference is to drift into the RHS (right half-space) where he will look to put a cross into the box. This is evident in the data too, as he ranked third of all midfielders in the league for completed crosses last season (aided by the number of corners taken).

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Evolution or Revolution?

So far this season we’ve been sticking mainly to the 3–4–2–1 shape, although out of possession, we will sometimes drop into a 3–5–2/5–3–2, especially in the last few games where Norwood, Vini Souza and Gus Hamer have all played together. Here’s how it looks:

In possession:

Out of possession:

Without any additions, this already looks like a very functional team. The midfield is made of three players who have complementary qualities. But we are in the top flight now: the old adage ‘If it ain’t broke don’t fix it’ does not apply. We haven’t won a game yet. And we have signed James McAtee on loan from Manchester City. This is significant. It begs the question of whether changes to our midfield are of a gradual evolution or a hasty revolution. Both have their merits. And given McAtee was our consensus best player (alongside Ndiaye) in the second half of last season, you’d be foolish to suggest he shouldn't have a starting role now. But how do you fit him in?

McAtee, Souza, Hamer: The Data

Many people have already made up their minds. It’s easy, just play McAtee, Souza and Hamer as a midfield three – sorted, right? Well, no, not really.

A team without Norwood will miss its best controller and best passer. Moreover, it will lack, as I mentioned before, a player who also does a very good job at winning the ball back and is deceptively strong – he hardly ever gets pushed off the ball.

And so, in that hypothetical non-Norwood three, our replacement is McAtee. He’s a top player in his own right and a great ball carrier, but he does his best business in the final third: he needs the freedom to arrive in the box and to make an impact further up the pitch. Put simply, he doesn’t occupy the space that Norwood does; this would not be like-for-like. McAtee is way more suited to being an attacking midfielder (AM) in a “box” midfield. This is how he played at the end of last season, and this almost certainly means an XI including McAtee has to play within a 3–4–2–1.

So that’s Hamer and Souza, with McAtee in front?

If you run with that logic, you go with Hamer and Souza as the double pivot as opposed to Norwood and Souza. Perfect, everything is fine. Well, yet again, not quite. Most people seem to think that it would be easy for Hamer to slot straight into Norwood’s role, when in reality I don’t think it would be easy at all. Norwood had just 0.36 touches in the opposition box last season per 90, whereas Hamer had 1.66, just a cool 360% more – 360%!

We’ve already seen the value of Hamer in and around the opposition box. After just four games, Hamer has been involved in a couple of goals and scored one himself, and all of those chance/goal contributions have come when he’s been unleashed in the final third. Those are not the spaces a Norwood replacement takes up. Norwood is very involved in our attacks, but most of the time it’s by providing an option from deep to recycle play, and other than that, the odd swept cross from the right. Norwood is usually central and just ahead of the back line, and this is quite different to Hamer who likes to float around in a state of disciplined undiscipline. Yes, he shares some similarities with Norwood insofar as he is active in terms of crosses from the RHS, but he tends to be active way further up the pitch way more regularly than Norwood. Restricting Hamer to being part of a pivot with Souza could cause a number of problems.

Problem 1: Souza in the deep

In the situation that Hamer is playing in a Norwood-like role, let’s imagine Hamer continually surging forward to support attacks in the final third (a likely scenario). This would give us an extra number going forward. However, we’d then be lacking any top ball-player from deep, and so if we were forced backwards, we would likely end up playing the ball to our deepest midfielder who would be Vinícius Souza.

If Souza is expected to fill that deeper position behind the ball, then all available evidence, unfortunately, does not point to Souza having a consistent ability to (a) move the ball closer to the opposition goal or (b) being sufficiently comfortable in possession. The data show that Souza cannot be expected to successfully carry out these Norwood-like duties, meaning with a Hamer/Souza pivot we’d likely see a lot of attacks breaking down:

• The ball would go back to Souza;

• who would then likely go backwards to a CB;

• giving an opposition team time to jump up and engage us higher up the pitch;

• meaning, all in all, Souza is easier for teams to press than Norwood, who they know has the ability to beat a press well with his passing and strength in duels.

Problem 2: Getting dirty

Once again, let’s imagine Hamer is high up the pitch. The Blades are in attack but we lose the ball, and the opposition has the chance to counter. In this situation, we’ll probably have a 3–1 rest defence (3 CBs – 1 DM) facing up to an opposition who is charging forward. Souza becomes our first line of defence. Yes, he is a good ball winner, but he is very aggressive and because of our setup in attack, will likely have to make a lot of fouls to stop counterattacks and will end up with a yellow card pretty much every game. And what follows bookings are suspensions, or worse, red cards.

Problem 3: Going long, keeping McBurnie fit

When we build out from the back, one constant theme of our play is going short from goal-kicks. When he plays, Norwood comes really deep so he can be near to the centre-backs, almost creating a back four at times. And when Norwood receives the ball, he’s able to turn well and has two options: (a) work us up the pitch with a shorter pass or (b) go more direct with a longer pass, which generally works quite well.

Goal-kick vs Lincoln (Norwood deepest mid):

Goal-kick vs Everton (Souza deepest mid):

Against Everton though, we saw Souza dropping to be the deepest midfielder on goal-kicks with Norwood just ahead, and Hamer closer to Archer and McBurnie up front. With McAtee in the team instead of Norwood, we might only have Souza in a deeper position, which could mean we’re restricted to one option: going more direct from the back. I’m not totally against that, but it does rely on us keeping McBurnie fit as he is the only attacker we have who you’d place a good amount of faith in winning long balls consistently. And that raises a further question: What’s the likelihood of keeping McBurnie fit all season?

Dear Tommy, wish you were here… or do I?

These factors make the straightforward assumption of Norwood out, McAtee in something less than straightforward. Without Tommy Doyle this season, it isn’t as easy to take Norwood out of the team. In 2022/23, when Norwood didn’t start it was usually Tommy Doyle who took his place.

Interestingly though, Doyle in 2021/22 shared a more similar statistical profile to Gustavo Hamer than Norwood. So perhaps there is a third way. Perhaps can we engineer a steady evolution, where Hamer takes up the role of a younger, more mobile version of Norwood. After all, that’s what we did with Doyle. Or perhaps the third way is a change in our approach. It’s possible that life in the Premier League rather than the Championship reduces the need for a controller like Norwood in midfield. Perhaps we may be better suited to a more direct, energetic midfield for the most part whilst always retaining that option to bring Norwood on from the bench, because it’s true that no one in our squad can keep things ticking over like he does.

What Next?

Personally, I absolutely love Norwood. I don’t think on our budget we could even find a player who could do the same job. Despite being that good both in and out of possession, he’s copped way too much stick during the past few years from our supporters. But I acknowledge that we’ve spent a lot of money on players like Archer, Hamer and Souza, while also paying 100% of James McAtee’s wages, so it makes sense that we’re going to prioritise their game time over Norwood’s.

If that is the case, and we don’t opt for a more evolutionary approach what do we do in the case of a revolution? Here are a few scenarios that we could see with the addition of McAtee:

The Evolutionary One:

This is the most likely setup without Norwood. Here, the formation is a continuation of what we have played for the last season. And in terms of this season, the key difference is playing McAtee where Hamer has been playing. Of course, as mentioned, that necessitates playing Hamer deeper; we know the problems that could arise.

Those thoughts to one side, Hamer has many of the necessary skills to play a role similar to Norwood. He has good passing range, ball-winning strengths, agility and so on. However, I’d liken him more to Berge for his ball-carrying skills and impact in the final third. It's funny: a lot of Blades fans objected to Berge playing deeper and now they expect Hamer to do that despite seeing his goals and chance creation higher up.

Nevertheless, this type of team likely plays very similarly to how we did at the end of last season, which is definitely a good thing. I do think Hamer-Norwood would be a better pairing than Hamer-Souza but the likelihood of Souza not being in the starting XI after costing an eight-figure fee is next to none (although don’t rule it out when Souza is inevitably suspended).

A team without Norwood will be much less comfortable playing out from the back. Instead, we would have to go long to McBurnie and try and get bodies around him to win second balls and flick-ons, Luckily, that’s something we have shown the ability to be able to do on many occasions.

The Midfield-Orientated One:

First off, I don’t think this set-up is particularly likely when Heckingbottom has a fully fit side to pick from. It comes at the expense of McBurnie who I think will be crucial this year, and whilst it’s not my preferred option, it may be of interest if McBurnie (or Archer) were injured or suspended.

This one gives us all four midfielders - Souza/Norwood and McAtee/Hamer. The style of play would likely be much more focused on keeping possession and playing through the lines, using a box midfield to gain superiority in the centre of the pitch. I’m sure we’ll play this at some point, but so long as McBurnie is available, he’s got to start. And so long as Archer is available, he’s got to start.

The Revolutionary One:

Other than the Jokanović reign and one game against Stoke (a 3-1 defeat), Sheffield United have played a three-at-the-back (3atb) formation for seven years. I don’t see a four-at-the-back (4atb) formation coming to fruition any time soon. However, it’s an idea that many people have discussed and it is worthy of discussion.

We don’t have wingers or left/right midfielders, so the only realistic option for a 4atb formation is the diamond. The best argument for 4atb is that it enables us to get all our best XI into a lineup together. In some ways, it also wouldn’t be as drastic a change as, let’s say, 4-3-3 under Jokanović. This isn’t to say it would be a smooth transition.

Unlike this season so far, where we have been forcing teams wide when we’re out of possession to invite crosses, a 4–4–2 diamond primarily focuses on pushing play towards congested central areas. This means as a team we’d have to learn completely different shapes out of possession and completely different pressing traps too. In possession, 4-diamond-2 also requires your players to be very switched on. You need to be intuitive in congested areas, passing has to be quick and accurate, and your strikers need to be intelligent, knowing when to run in behind and when to split. Fortunately, Archer and McBurnie are quite good in that sense, but questions could be asked about whether we have the depth up-top to play with two fixed strikers.

I also think the two #8 spots are a bit of a weak point if we were to play this way, as likely first-choice Viní Souza isn’t particularly known for his box-crashing runs and doesn’t really offer much else in terms of ball carrying and progression. Alternatively, Anis Slimane isn’t really a great fit for the role either. The evidence points to his off-the-ball work not being of the required standard, and I don’t think he’s ready to play such a physically-demanding role at this level yet.

Had we not sold Berge I might be more inclined towards this formation. He’d be a pretty perfect fit in that #8 role. And the profiles of others in our squad – Hamer, McAtee, Norwood – could suit it down to the ground. But with current personnel, I just don’t think it’s a serious option, especially in the top flight.

Nevertheless, it’s an option. And to make it work we’d have to rely heavily on Hamer providing attacking output and getting into advanced areas from midfield, as Souza has no track record of impacting a game that way. What he does have in abundance are the defending qualities that are absolutely perfect for this kind of shuttler role. From Souza’s 2021/22 data in the Belgian Pro League, we see a player who compares well with Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo.

Caicedo, in my eyes, is probably the ideal player for this role. It’s a position in which he shone, if briefly, under Graham Potter at Brighton. And so if we were to switch to a 4atb, Souza’s favourable comparison to Caicedo gives me some confidence that we could, not that we will, nail a diamond midfield.

Evolution or revolution?

The answer to that question is probably a bit of both. I suspect we’ll play the same shape as we do now except with Hamer in Norwood’s role and McAtee as an attacking midfielder. Personally, I think this risks making us far too predictable.

Set up like this, our ability to play in possession and in build-up could deteriorate. If teams find a way to stop us, we’ll quickly become too direct. None of that is to say that Hamer won’t take to Norwood’s role like a duck to water if he can get up to speed with the angles and positions he’d be expected to take up. But we know because we’ve seen it already, if Hamer plays this deep, we stand to lose out on the chances/goals he creates higher up the pitch.

There’s a nagging part of me that thinks the 4-diamond-2 is definitely something we should keep in mind. We’ve not seen a Sheffield United side successfully play 4atb for seven years. With the personnel at our disposal, is this the team to cast off the 3atb shackles and lead us into the revolution?